Not a new observation, but gaining traction, though most people are still resolutely ignoring the reality of it: Peak Oil. Also see Life after the oil crash for the most succinct and convincing arguments about the looming energy crisis.
In brief, oil is finite, in fact, it’s running out. However, the world’s appetite for it is still growing—exponentially. The oil wells aren’t literally drying out, but their are emptying. The less they have in them, the harder it is to get it out. No major new oil finds have happened in decades, and the smaller finds are more expensive to tap.
Alternative energy sources combined can probably only provide between 10 and 25 per cent of the energy we currently derive from oil, but most of them will not even work for transportation, which is the leading consumer of energy. Even if we could convert our infrastructure and manufacturing and transportation to other forms of energy, there will still be other shortages: plastics and fertilizer, which come from petroleum, and minerals and metals used in alternative energy technology, and, finally, land. Many alternative technologies (wind, solar, bio-fuels) are land-use intensive. And then there’s coal.
Some people believe that the oil production peak has already happened. Others that it is as close as three years or as far as twenty-five. But it’s within your lifetime, probably, and your children’s, definitely. The world’s standard of living is going to drop (if you use contemporary industrial lifestyle as your measure of standard of living).
Personally, the great, sad realization is not the loss of refrigerators, the Internet, cheap holidays or the like, but the certain end of space exploration and the relegation of the human race to stagnation and decline on this single lump of rock to which we cling precariously. Knowledge and discovery will slow and finally stop, and we will enter a new “dark” age. The window hasn’t completely closed, but it’s closing fast. Only the most outrageous science fiction ideas can possibly save us: self-replicating robots loosed into the solar system that can assemble factories and equipment from the asteroid belt, slowly, and return raw materials back to earth orbit, coupled with draconian measures of resource conservation and a complete restructuring of the human economy: replacing our current free market, growth-based system with one that is static and heavily planned and controlled.
Personally, I’m happy to go back to reading books, limited rail travel, buying locally: in effect, a return to the eighteenth century, technologically speaking, for the bulk of daily life and work. It would be better than another world war being fought over oil and the freedom to waste it on Karaoke and Dodge Vipers.
Addendum: The one beacon of hope that I’ve found goes by a number of names, and is in fact a very old idea: concentrated solar power (CSP). Here is an article at The Oil Drum. Another nice thing about CSP is that it can counteract the greenhouse effect by capturing solar energy that would otherwise be absorbed by the ground and then radiate as infrared (heat), which is what is principally absorbed by the CO2 in the atmosphere. It could also possibly offset the loss of reflectivity due to melting polar ice (though there’s still the problem of the polar oceans absorbing heat directly).
However, the economy shake-up cannot be avoided by CSP alone; even if CSP could satisfy our energy hunger, it can’t give us the fuel we depend on for transportation, which gobbles up 70% of oil production. You can’t fly jets with batteries! If CSP can be utilized to produce hydrogen, we may be able to use that as a portable fuel, but there are still concerns, such as volatility and evaporation. Possibly we can forgo most jet travel and switch to dirigibles (blimps) and electric trains.
Yes, the world is going to change dramatically, but it will only turn out good if we actually make the decisions and follow up with effort. Don’t just wait for the scientists, corporations and governments to solve the problems that YOU helped to create. Demand that your governments fund alternative technology and plan for the long term, not just the next election. Make the next election depend upon the long term.
